Aurora, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

121
FXUS63 KGID 080452
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1152 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A fairly dry 7-day period with a few isolated 10-20% chances
sprinkled throughout (TUES, WED & SUN nights).

- 15-25 degree warmup Tuesday with highs ranging the mid 60s to
upper 70s through Friday.

- Increasing Fire Weather concerns Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon
(near-critical). Greatest overall risk Thursday afternoon (near-
critical to critical).

- A secondary warmup over the Weekend may bring highs up to the
  upper 70s to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Tonight and Tomorrow...

A cold frontal passage early this morning setup northeasterly winds
for the day and kept highs in the 50s to low 60s. One final night
tonight of consecutive subfreezing temperatures is in store (upper
20s low 30s) with light 5-10 MPH winds swinging south for Tuesday.
This windshift will be influenced by falling pressure into the
afternoon hours of Tuesday as a weak surface low approaches the area.
Winds for the day are expected to peak out around 15-20MPH with
gusts as high as 30MPH possible towards eastern NE/KS.

A warm front attached to the low will sweep across the area Tuesday
afternoon, transpiring a quick 15-25 degree warmup, potentially
sending a few of our southwestern fringes into the low 80s (20%
chance). Generally much of the area will fall in the upper 60s to
upper 70s. Otherwise, a few clouds may budge in from the north with
a weakening ridge aloft that will turn the upper-level flow into a
brief zonal pattern.

Wednesday through Friday...

Surface winds are expected to become northwesterly oriented starting
Wednesday as the surface low center pushes on through. This should
set the stage for rising pressure though the remainder of the work
week. Light winds 10-15MPH gusting as high as 25MPH wednesday
afternoon, will increase to 15-25MPH and gusting as high as 40MPH
Thursday afternoon. These strengthening north to northwesterly winds
will continue to mix in drier air down from off the rockies. Please
reference the Fire Weather section for additional information on the
fire weather potential.

Besides a few 15% POPs for isolated showers Wednesday, the remainder
of the week remains dry. Highs will continue to ride the mid 60s to
mid 70s Wednesday through Friday afternoon. Winds Friday should
remain light and turning south as a surface high pressure center
passes over. Aloft, the stream wise jet axis will orient northwest to
southeast as a upper level low deepens over the great lakes region
and a western U.S. ridge amplifies. This upstream building ridge
will influence the remainder of the long-term forecast period.

Saturday and Beyond...

Ridging in the mid-to-upper levels over the majority of the weekend
will continue to suppress any precipitation chance. Another warmup
Saturday and Sunday will raise temperatures up towards the upper 70s
to upper 80s as southerly winds advect a warm front through the
Region. Additional moisture should replenish some behind the front,
allowing dewpoints to return briefly to the 50s. A shortwave trough
passing through the northern plains Sunday will deepen a Dakota based
low. This will likely in return drop a cold front down and through
early Monday, hauling the weekend warmup and introducing 15-20%
PoPs. Otherwise, a slightly cooler and drier airmass should fallow
suite.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (95%) in VFR conditions through the period.

Winds return to the south for Tuesday, and there may be a brief
period of marginal LLWS at EAR prior to dawn. Afternoon wind
gusts around 25kts are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Western areas, mainly along and west of a line from Buffalo to
Osborne counties, will reach near-critical fire weather conditions
Tuesday given min RH values as low as 15-30% with 15-20 MPH
southerly wind gusts. Similar conditions will be possible again on
Wednesday, though winds will instead blow from the northwest. A
greater portion of the area, mainly areas west of HWY-81, will
likely reach near-critical fire weather conditions. Any increase in
gusts could increase fire weather concerns.

The most prominent Fire Weather concerns of the week will fall
Thursday as northwest winds gust as high as 30-40MPH. Widespread
near-critical to critical conditions will likely be met for much of
the area. The overall worst conditions should mainly lie southwest
of a line from Buffalo to Jewell counties. A Fire Weather Watch may
be considered during our next forecast cycle as the event will then
fall within our 72-hour window.

A few isolated western spots of near-critical conditions could
transpire Friday and Saturday with increasing concerns Sunday and
next Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...Stump