Aurora, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

167
FXUS63 KGID 250008
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
708 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

...Aviation and Key Messages Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- While there remains a "non-zero" (but small) chance for a
  spotty strong thunderstorm to at least flirt with our far
  north-northeastern counties through 10-11 PM, it`s becoming
  increasingly apparent that our risk for a few severe storms
  this evening (albeit was never high to begin with with "only"
  a Marginal Risk from SPC) is lower than it appeared 24 hours
  ago.

- There is a low (20-30%) chance for isolated thunderstorms
  again Monday afternoon and evening. IF storms develop, a few
  could be on the strong side, but the overall severe threat is
  low.

- More widespread rain/t-storm chances arrive Wednesday night
  into Thursday, with continued off/on chances through next
  weekend. A few strong to severe storms cannot be totally ruled
  out, but the severe threat remains low (especially for late
  May).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Satellite shows an area of deepening cumulus over southwest
Nebraska. This will be the area to monitor as it slides across
central Nebraska and northern Kansas late this afternoon into
early evening. CAMs indicate that coverage should remain pretty
isolated, but convective parameters are favorable for a few of
these to become strong to marginally severe (MUCAPE 1500-2000
J/kg and effective shear ~30kts). Relatively dry low levels
would be favorable for downburst winds. This will likely be the
primary hazard, although some severe hail cannot be completely
ruled out as well. Any storms that develop should fade by 9-10pm
with the loss of diurnal heating.

Monday will trend a few degrees warmer than today, and many
areas are anticipated to reach the low 90s, aided by a steady
south wind. Isolated storms are again possible, although CAMs
indicate that this will be more favorable over the Sandhills,
potentially nudging into northwestern portions of the forecast
area. Shear is not impressive tomorrow, so an organized severe
threat is even less likely than today.

Tuesday is favored to remain mostly dry, but rain/tstorm chances
increase again Wednesday evening and continue through Thursday.
This will be in response to a shortwave moving across the
central Plains ahead of a deeper upper low over the west coast.
Off and on chances for thunderstorms then continue through the
end of the week as the upper low gradually ejects over the
northern Plains. Unfortunately, the upper-level pattern is
expected to be "messy" which makes it difficult to pin down
specific details. But, as mentioned in the Key Messages, the
severe threat does not look particularly threatening. The GEFS
CSU-MLP severe probs remain below 5% through next week. This is
probably partly influenced by uncertainty on timing/evolution of
the upper level pattern, but is still well below climatology
(~10%) for late May.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 709 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Extremely-high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout
the period (only limited amounts of mid-high level clouds), and
any small chance for thunderstorms that previously existed for
early this evening also appears to be quickly fading. Very late
in this valid period Monday afternoon (mainly after 22Z),
thunderstorms could develop within 25-50 miles north-through-
west of KGRI/KEAR, but fairly high confidence that they will
avoid both sites through at least 00Z.

That leaves winds as by far the main issue, including slightly-
strong surface winds, and moderately-strong low level wind shear
(LLWS) this evening into early Monday morning.

- Surface winds:
Southerly winds will remain elevated throughout the period, with
sustained speeds at-or-above 15KT the vast majority of the time.
This evening into Monday morning, gusts will commonly top out at
least 20-25KT, with a slight drop-off occurring a few hours
either side of sunrise. As the day wears on, speeds will only
gradually increase, with afternoon sustained speeds commonly
17-20KT/gusts 25+KT.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS):
Despite the breezy surface winds, a very strong south-
southwesterly low level jet developing overnight will cause
winds to accelerate to at least 45-50KT within the lowest 2K ft.
AGL, resulting in moderately-strong LLWS magnitudes of 30-35+KT.
Given that the direction of these strong lower-level winds will
gradually shift from more southerly to more southwesterly with
time, have maintained two LLWS groups in TAFs (the first valid
03-09Z and the second 09-13Z).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Pfannkuch